[原创] 2012沙盘演绎--传奇

tfmegatron

Background: The stock market ended a tumultuous year 2011 right where it started.  In the final tally, despite big climbs and falls, unexpected blows and surprising triumphs, all the hullabaloo proved for naught. On Friday, the Standard & Poor's 500 index closed at 1,257.60. That's exactly 0.04 point below where it started the year.

"If you fell asleep January 1 and woke up today, you'd think nothing had happened," says Jack Ablin, chief investment officer of Harris Private Bank. "But it's been up and down all year. It's been crazy."

It was a year when U.S. companies were supposed to run out of ways to make big profits. But they didn't, and in fact generated more than ever. It was a year when the U.S. lost its prized triple-A credit rating, which should have spooked buyers of its bonds. Instead investors bought more of them and made Treasurys one of the best bets of 2011. It was a year when stocks caught fire, then collapsed to near bear-market lows.

Among stocks, there were some surprising winners. Scaredy-cat investors who bought the most conservative and dullest of stocks — utilities — gained 15 percent this year, the biggest price rise of the ten industry sectors in the S&P 500. Other winning groups were consumer staples, up 11 percent, and health care companies, 10 percent.

当我们看到以上年终总结的时候，当utilities, consumer staples和health care成为全年winning sector的时候，我们知道我们处于一个bear cycle，以下是全年各sector的表现：

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2012-1-1 22:45

如果你还不相信我们正处于一个bear cycle，那么请往下看：

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2012-1-1 22:45

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2012-1-1 22:46

Stages of Sector Rotation

• Stage I:   The transition from bear market to bull. Cyclical sectors — Financials, Technology and Consumer Discretionary — outperform.

• Stage II:  Mid-to-late bull market.  Materials and Industrials outperform, as do  Energy and Telecom stocks;

• Stage III:  Nondiscretionary sectors — Health Care, Consumer Staples and Utilities — Recession proof products and services — are the most resilient as the bull begins to die.

从09年3月以来，我们经历了一个112周的上升周期，终结于2011年4月，正在经历的是一个下降周期，以50% retracement计算，这个bear cycle将历时13个月，终结于2012年5月，位置在1000-1020，之后市场将一飞冲天，以下是我的沙盘演绎：

预测2012 high 1440, low 1020, close 1258

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2012-1-1 22:42

not4weak

先顶再看！！！

farshine

wyemlyy

为啥是50% retractment,  不是38。2% 呢？那样就是2月

Background: The stock market ended a tumultuous year 2011 right where it started.  In the final tall ...
tfmegatron 发表于 2012-1-1 21:42

quietplayer

顶！堪称震天的巨著！

dvork

tfmegatron

为啥是50% retractment,  不是38。2% 呢？那样就是2月
wyemlyy 发表于 2012-1-1 22:00

因为从2011年5月开始跌了5个月，然后Q4反弹了3个月，再跌5个月正好到2012年5月sell in May结束，另外从时间和空间上50% retarcement都比较吻合，.382, ,618是菲博拉契做的事情，华尔街的MM只会50%的计算，简单明了。。。

not4weak

回复 7# tfmegatron

你和小雪商量了吗？ 他的图指向950

not4weak

西门吹雪

not4weak

Between devil and the deep blue sea

tfmegatron

Between devil and the deep blue sea
not4weak 发表于 2012-1-1 22:58

看看，2011收1257.6，全年跌0.04点，，，2012收1258，全年涨0.4点，怎么样？

not4weak

看看，2011收1257.6，全年跌0.04点，，，2012收1258，全年涨0.4点，怎么样？
tfmegatron 发表于 2012-1-1 23:04

You mean rob peter and pay Paul?

棋王

楼主好帖，精华！

axp

精华好帖 顶！顶！顶！