Quote from iceman1:
...like the pretty purple color with the green; I have found dice work better than elliot wave analysis. ...
iceman1 - Glad that you like the combination of purple and green. Elliot Wave analysis is very subjective so that different people could have different intepretations on a given chart, regardless the analysis needs to be based on some rules. Since it needs to be interpreted, the result of analysis cannot be guaranteed like a scientific analysis as 1+1=2. And since the analysis is by people while majority people lose on trading, there is no surprise that "dice works better than elliot wave analysis."
Quote from iceman1:
... I am always curious when over the past 25 years I read all kinds of predictions, most of which never occur. Therefore, what exactly are you doing to implement your analysis?! How are you playing it ...
I guess that you have read lots of EW predictions from the famous RP's publications. If so, I did the same thing too, but I stopped reading them and threw them all to recycle bin about 16 years ago. That is a good question about the implementation of my analysis. If I tell you the truth, you won't believe it. All my wave counts are just my 6th sense guessing. First, one needs to study RN's EW principle and remember his every single word, and then one needs to study charts by applying the principle. An example of how to trade with EW, please read the following wiki link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_Wave_Principle
Quote from iceman1:
... is this some academic exercise with nothing really being risked. Anyone can make an educated guess on the market outlook, but few can trade it well.
...
Good point! Very few people can trade solely by using EW ... at least I haven't seen one yet. I would guess that the famous RP has never traded with his EW analysis; otherwise, he would have been wiped out long time ago. EW is one of the hardest (if not the hardest) TA approaches to master. EW is the major tool that I use on trading. I trade on my preferred count (purple line). If the market goes against my prediction, the grey line takes over and becomes the preferred count. If both go wrong, I take a break. If one wants to trade EW, market selection is very important. It got to have good liquidity, and it got be widely traded. These are the only 4 markets that I trade now (after trading almost every commodity and currency in the world): EUR, SP, GC, JPY.
Quote from iceman1:
... After all timing is important, last I checked! Frankly I don't have a fricking clue as to what happens. Anyone who tells me they are sure which way market will move, is a fool or deranged. This market has baffled much smarter people than me and many others. ...
Good point again! Timing is much more important than getting a good price. Entering the market too early, one gets killed. Entering the market too late, one misses out a big move and that incurs some bigger risk. Remember ... trading with EW needs to be very cautious. There is nothing 100%, so you always need to have a back-up plan, which is the alternative wave count. If someone tells me that s/he is "sure which way market will move" and if the direction is in synch with my predition, I will take a look to see where I might be wrong. On the other hand, if someone's prediction is in the opposite direction as mine, I will be more confident about my own.
Quote from iceman1:
... Further if you had backed up the truck at least 4-5 times over the past 6 months (maybe more) in some stocks, ETFs and indexes, and nailed it, you could pretty much take the next couple years off and travel the world on a motorcycle. So who cares about wave count?! As I recall from my studies, elliot wave is not a science but subject to very broad interpretation as to count.
Oui?
regards,
iceman1 - It will be nice to "travel the world on a motorcycle" like JR. I wish I could do that and retire earlier. Over the last 24 years (since 1987), I have got wiped out numerous times ... I cannot even remember how many times. Good thing now is that I have entered a stable state, so ... I am working on it. Hopefully, one day, before I become too old, I can pick up a pretty one and say, "are you willing to travel the world on a motorcycle with me?" |
发表于 2011-11-28 02:26
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