you label the down trend as abc, so the primary trend is up? can you explain the big picture?
The big picture is:
[[D]].[C].E has completed, and now it's in the progress of [[E]].[A].C.
An alternative count is:
[[V]].[C].E has completed, and now it's in the progress of [[V]].[D].C.
Not a bull, not a bear, I am just a wolf ... 偶還是習慣稱行情漲為紅盤跌為慘綠
Basically, I treat the 2008-09's big collapse as a [[C]] inside a flat correction starting from 2003:
March-2000 - started this huge flat
December-2002 - [[A]] completed
December-2007 - [[B]] completed
March-2009 - [[C]] completed
OK ... from then there are two possibilities:
1. June-2011 - [[D]] completed (which means a huge [[E]] is on the way), or
2. June-2011 - [[V]].[C] completed (which means an ending [[V]] is on the way), and now it's just close to the end of [[V]].[D]
I don't consider the [[D]].[C].E is a "整个反弹浪" of "08年的下跌5浪" because it has gone too high.
第一张图标志的是A-B-C,后面还应该有反弹浪-D和下跌驱动浪-E的出现
If my count is correct then the answer is NO because it will be the ending of [A] inside a huge [[E]].
那么,比较一下下面的图,两者在08年迄今的范围里,应没有什么分别吧?
They are very similar. One of the major differences is that I label 3-segment waves or unhealty impulsive waves by using abcde instead of 12345.
Not a bull, not a bear, I am just a wolf ... 偶還是習慣稱行情漲為紅盤跌為慘綠
Yes, [[[IV]]].[[E]].[A].C is about to end (but not done yet). Yes, "接着走[[[IV]]].[[E]].[B]". Yes, "最后在前期高点以及费波纳契的 ... %处完成[[[IV]]].[[E]].[C]". The only thing is that the "..." would not necessarily be "61.8%". It will eventually depend on how the market acts. I am looking at anywhere from 950 to 830 ... where it will be an ideal place to do all-in.
Not a bull, not a bear, I am just a wolf ... 偶還是習慣稱行情漲為紅盤跌為慘綠
You know that an abc could be 335 or 535. "从[[D]].[C].E.起始的 [[[IV]]].[[E]].[A]浪" dose not need to be a "驱动浪型态,即5浪型态" to be a "条件" of forming a segment of [[D]].[C].E.
I agree with that. I have seen some EW technicians categorize that as I-II-III instead of A-B-C. The reason that I tentatively label them as A-B-C is based on the detail wave movement inside each segment. It did not seem to me some 12345 inside A. Please see attachments:
Not a bull, not a bear, I am just a wolf ... 偶還是習慣稱行情漲為紅盤跌為慘綠
Normally, an E wave is a simple wave segment to make a quick final kickout small fishes and then breakout the triangle. However, in our case, we are watch a multi-year (more than a decade) super big formation. IMHO, a complex type is more possible. If we want it to be a simple type, then it will be a real crash like 1987.
Not a bull, not a bear, I am just a wolf ... 偶還是習慣稱行情漲為紅盤跌為慘綠
Trading with EW needs to be flexible, and the wave count needs to be adjusted in accordance with the actual market behavior. See the following two charts:
On 08/06/2011, I was guessing that gold's bull run was about ending (because it has reached one of my long term targets ($1690, why that? See the backup at the end).
On Monday 08/08/2011, it gapped up and broke 08/04/'s high. At that moment, an extension was forming, and the wave needed to be recounted.
The following chart is the wave count as of 08/13/2011. The market closed at $1740 on Friday (08/12/2011). The preferred count was seeing it heading to $1800 and then $1850.
The market movement in last week showed a very strong upside momentum. All short term wave targets got fulfilled with minimal effort. The wave-5 showed 5 well-defined waves in its intraday chart. We don't know if there is more extension here again. If so, the next target would be $1960.
How to trade?
1. It's better not to short against the explosive wave-5 because:
1.1 We don't know whether it will have any extension or not.
1.2 There is no meaningful point that a stop order can be placed to protect your position.
2. It's better to try after we have seen a well-defined downside impulsive movement. Then you know to short when it rebounds, and you know where you can stand against.