[技术分析] Perfect Wave - 2011-Q3

snowrider

I am starting a new thread for 2011 Q3 (Jul - Sep), including EUR, SP, Gold, and JPY. My wave counts of last quarter can be found from:
http://www.yayabay.com/forum/viewthread.php?tid=124382

Elliott Wave reference can be found from:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

My labeling for wave degrees in different time frames:
Monthly – [[[I]]], [[[II]]], [[[III]]], [[[IV]]], [[[V]]], [[[A]]], [[[B]]], [[[C]]]
Monthly – [[I]], [[II]], [[III]], [[IV]], [[V]], [[A]], [[B]], [[C]]
Weekly – [I], [II], [III], [IV], [V], [A], [B], [C]
Weekly – I, II, III, IV, V, A, B, C
Daily – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, a, b, c
Daily – _1, _2, _3, _4, _5, _a, _b, _c
Hourly – __1, __2, __3, __4, __5, __a, __b, __c

snowrider

SP Monthly :: Where We Stand at Now

Comments are welcome!

tfmegatron

俄就喜欢这样大开大合，厚厚!

snowrider

This is a discussion from some other forum:

The market in different stages have different behaviors.  When we see sideway movement, the market is in a consolidation stage, which is corresponding to EW's corrective waves.  After a corrective wave, the market resumes the trend with a impulsive wave.  At the end of a trend, the ending impulsive wave fails, and the a reversal comes after that.

...
One thing puzzled me is on EW charts, I seldom see the market in range, always up and down. From my observation, market can just trade sideways for sometime after a big run and resume the trend, not necessary get busted.
...

snowrider

This is a discussion from some other forum:

Good question!  Counting waves is a very subjective thing.  Given a chart, there are infinitely many ways of counts.  It's like asking people about a Monet's paint the question that what the paint is good or bad at.  There is no right answer.  A bull's eyes see everything bullish, while a bear's eyes see everything bearish.

Let me explain that with this intraday chart.  You can see there are 3 segments from 05/02/2011's high to 06/16/2011's low.  I labelled that as wave-1, 2, and 3 (of course that labelling was incorrect as of today's market).  Say, 123 could also be abc, right?  Yes!  It turned out yes.  But at the end point of wave-3 we did not know if there would be a wave-4 forming or a new wave-abc up.  What to do?  We need to know our bottom line.  My bottom line was when I saw the first surge on 06/16/2011, I assumed that wave-3 (or wave-c) was completed.  So I liquidated all my short position.  At the same time, we also needed to know what if the market was actually reversing.  If we did not do something, then it would leave us 乾瞪眼 if the market reversed.  Right?  Yes!  That's why I started taking light long position.  We counted from 06/16/2011's low as either the starting point of wave-4 or a reversal.  The high on 06/22/2011 finished either wave-4.a or wave-a (of the reversal).  The low of 06/23/2011 finished either wave-4.b or wave-b (of the reversal) which gave us anther good opportunity to add up long position with minimal risk.  Notice that I labelled a wave-4 on 06/29/2011?  That was the last chance for the bear if the market ever wanted to go down.  After that, the market was no longer in 12345 down wave pattern.  Again, in order to trade with wave, we need to know where we stand at and what our bottomline is.  I never wanted the market to go up this way because I was very bearish.  The only reason that I took long position is to prevent from 乾瞪眼 in the WHAT IF case.

看不懂。。 要不你就这十天图来讲讲 那一段算corrective, 那一段算implusive?
...

not4weak

这些数字是你标上去的吗?

snowrider

这些数字是你标上去的吗?
not4weak 发表于 2011-7-2 11:05

妳說揑?

snowrider

07/02/2011

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

This is a discussion from some other forum:

Thanks for commenting.  As I said that EW is a TA approach.  As a TA approache, nothing is guaranteed.  EW deals with price action/pattern/behavior.  EW is easy to understand but hard to master.

这个E Wave 在外汇市场上是被广泛应用，不过据我观察， 基本上 50－50， 事后诸葛亮。 这些东西就是偶尔很好用 （ 比如 02年的大盘 就很是按 它走的 ）多数的时候不灵光。 问题得关键是你事先不知道啥事后灵光， 啥时候不灵。

snowrider

This is a discussion from some other forum:

Thanks for commenting.  Yes, I agree that "日元下到80以下不容易".  I've lost a lot of money on Yen last week.  About "欧元上1.5有有疑问", I don't know.  If one established a long position last Monday, s/he can lay back and take it easy to watch to see if EUR will break out the triangle or not.  That comes to the question whether prediction is more important or trading strategy is.

日元下到80以下不容易，也就地震那几天，现在可不大有这个机会

同理，我也对欧元上1.5有有疑问

snowrider

This is a discussion from some other forum:

Thanks for commmenting.  I agree that "心理暗示更大一点".  No matter what market direction that EW predicts, it should never override a well proven trading strategy.

Also when we see a Monet's painting or a Da Vinci Code whatever and find something match our trading strategy, we will have more confidence to place heavy bet.  Otherwise, a normal or light bet will apply.

... 我也觉得是心理暗示更大一点。读图靠经验和pattern

snowrider

This is a discussion from some other forum:

It's actually not "复杂".  You can find from the web a lot of EW references.  It is as simple as 12345abc.  If you are doing "短期交易", wave patterns still can be observed in a hourly chart or even 5-min chart.  Inside a super wave (e.g., tsunami), there exists some huge waves, ... and a small wave consists of many micro waves, and so on and so forth.  Again the trading strategy is more important than prediction.  Discipline is above anything.

这东西太复杂了，我弄几年了还没弄太明白，而且短期交易会受到影响。有bias就不好飞苍蝇了。

snowrider

Some people feel that MA is easier to follow while some use other approaches.  I've used ALL kinds/types of TA approaches, but EW is the only one that I've been using for the past more than 15 years after throwing away all other TA stuff.  Oh I forgot to say that I also use Gann, moon phase, seasonal trend, cycle, and volume in the analysis.  Basically I threw away any TA stuff that is mathematically calculated.

aimei

Frog is learning thanks
guts feeling is to buy dip

snowrider

07/06/2011

Comments are welcome!