ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/summers051911.html

“I firmly believe that we could see another round of deflation this summer. And that's when the Fed will begin to stage its next round of intervention/ stimulus: autumn 2011 going into 2012.”

我支持Graham Summers的观点。
现在的问题就是股市具体的走法和对应的时间。
我猜测NASDAQ的中期顶点在2940-2970区间，时间看来要到6月下旬，然后2级跳跌至2400+。也许9/10月份会来第三跳，从2600+到2300+。

ychen222

胡同9/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=123340&extra=page%3D1
http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock ... 4/21039892012.shtml

“1300-1295点之间存在重大支撑，这一区间很难迅速被破。”
“总结：从我们的近期技术指标来看，标普500指数近期可能会在1295-1300点进行整理。不仅1300点附近的区域是一个重大支撑而难以被迅速攻破，而且总体技术面仍然有利，因此标普从该位置向上修正是不足为奇的，我们推荐等待回调以逢低吸纳。”

ychen222

http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/ ... t=191&start=140

“Re: 05/24/2011 Intraday Watering

by FJoe » Tue May 24, 2011 2:51 pm

Just an FYI and this time may be different. The last 3 big selloffs lasted

Aug. 9 to Aug 30 = 15 trading days
Nov. 5 to Nov 30 = 16 trading days
Feb. 18 to Mar. 16 = 17 trading days
May 2 to May 23 = 16 trading days or 17 trading days if the low of today is taken out...so I assume we are close to, if haven't hit a bottom here.
FJoe Posts: 65Joined: Fri Mar 11, 2011 10:40 am”

看起来不错。

ychen222

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... D95481&cmd=show[s4549237]&disp=O

欧元终于没有突破140大关。
而美元弱的话，有利于股市。

ychen222

胡同9/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=123501&extra=page%3D1

以前股市的细节走法很有用。

ychen222

http://www.3xetf.com/

All 3x ETFs

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/maund053011.html

“As you are probably well aware, everyone has gotten complacent over the broad stockmarket, with premature top callers continually getting burned as it has somehow stayed levitated, but as we will now see the situation is getting more and more dangerous with passing time. This is because the market is rounding over beneath the large parabolic "Distribution Dome" shown on our 1-year chart for the S&P500 index below. Few traders understand these Dome patterns or what they portend. The rounding nature of the pattern is evidence that profit takers are increasingly overwhelming fresh buyers whose efforts to drive the market higher are blunted to the point that they have no effect at all and once the Dome starts to roll over, as is happening now, the bears have gotten hold of the ball, and it only takes the re-emergence of fear in the market to precipitate a potentially severe decline. Add into the mix that the market has just broken down from a 3-arc Fan pattern as pointed out by Richard Russell and also shown on our chart, which usually precipitates a drop, and you have the recipe for a potentially heavy selloff. Here we should note that Domes don't always lead to bearmarkets, as they can simply be a form of rounding correction - sometimes the market breaks suddenly above the Dome boundary and a new major upleg ensues, but here the situation is complicated by the Fan breakdown - so it will take not just a break above the Dome boundary, but a break back above the 3rd fanline to turn the market bullish again.”

听着也有道理。

ychen222

http://www.trader1688.com/bb/vie ... ;t=48318&hilit=

“现在的大盘，就是 2010年 2月初的走法，，，自己看去吧，不要天天打酱油了，自己悟吧，
大盘中期趋势图上次一周前，半夜里也已经画过了贴出来过了，，，
还记得 2009 年，俺说过 SPX 1000 是强支撑要被反复测试那句话吗？当时有多少人瞎BASH啊？
今天有多少人再想从 1000 买一次到 1370 还有机会吗？ 木有了！！！
同理，当今年到了 1450～1500 的时候再回头看 1300 这个长达个把月的夯实平台的时候，
我敢保证有人还是这个心情，还会有多少人再想从 1300 买一次到 1500，还有机会吗？木有了！！！”

从1月触到SP500的1300开始，指数连续4个多月周旋于1300，对应NASDAQ的2750。
此盘整显然积蓄了大能量，希望市场最终选择向上。

大傻

热泪尹眶。。。。跟着帮主走，吃喝拉撒不用愁。

http://www.trader1688.com/bb/viewtopic.php?f=87&t=48318&hilit=

“现在的大盘，就是 2010年 2月初的走法，，，自己看去吧，不要天天打酱油了，自己悟吧，
大盘中期趋势图上次一周前，半夜里也已经画过了贴出 ...
ychen222 发表于 2011-6-3 07:26

not4weak

54# 大傻
扯的成分太大, 以为股市听她的吗?

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/smyth060211.html

下载 (54.81 KB)

2011-6-6 06:21

“the financial sector was extremely weak so far this year, and it has been a drag on the market as a whole. The performance graph below shows that the financial sector is the only sector that is down so far this year. The rotation into defensive sectors is also clear on this graph with Healthcare and Utilities leading the market.”

看XLF图，只要不过16.25，就算有涨也不过是反弹。

aimei

How I just saw this one
thanks
but I loaded financials heavily'555555555555555

ychen222

http://www.frontlinethoughts.com

“The answer is very simple and it is linked to the recent underperformance of banks almost everywhere. Indeed, with short rates still low everywhere, and yield curves positively sloped, we are in the phase of the cycle when banks should be outperforming. The fact that they are not has to be seen as a concern. So does the underperformance come from the fact that the market senses that losses have yet to be booked (Europe?)? Is it a reflection of a lack of demand for loans (US?) or that more losses and write-offs are just around the corner (Japan?)? Is the bank underperformance signaling that we are on the verge of a new banking crisis, most likely linked to the possibility of European debt restructurings? Or perhaps it is linked to the coming end of QE2 and consequential tightening in the liquidity environment (see our Quarterly published earlier today for more on this topic)?

“In our view, any of the above could potentially explain the recent bank underperformance. But whatever the reasons may be, it has to be seen as a worrying sign. One of our ‘rules of thumb’ is that if banks do not manage to outperform when yield curves are steep, the market must be worried about the financial sectors’ balance sheets (given that, with a steep yield curve, there are few reasons to worry about the bank’s income statement).”

银行有不明的坏帐？还是在满地打滚向FED/国会要奶吃？

aimei

so which sector will be good?

ychen222

so which sector will be good?
aimei 发表于 2011-6-7 18:31

若变牛势的话，可能反而金融有涨的潜力。