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下届美国国务卿谈中美关系

7已有 755 次阅读  2020-11-22 21:56
当选总统拜登提名托尼伯林根出任下届美国国务卿。对中国来说,彭佩奥噩梦终于可以结束了。
托尼伯林根曾任美国副国务卿和副国家安全顾问。(国家安全顾问给总统本人服务,副国家安全顾问给副总统提供建议)也就是他是拜登在奥巴马-拜登政府(2009-2016年)时的老部下。他也是华盛顿老面孔。早在克林顿总统时代就在国家安全顾委员会任职。资历上看是一位外交事务的熟手了。此次在拜登竞选期间为恭任团队首席外交事务顾问。在国务院期间,他曾参与全球难民危机处理事务和亚洲再平衡策略的制定。

这是今年7月在美国智库哈德森研究所接受的一个访谈发言(WRM 提问者)。当时拜登总统-to-be 还在地下室里数星星呢。来看看他怎么说的。 

Walter Russell Mead (WRM): I think that’s right. Maybe what we should do is talk about a few hotspots and    then get back to the sort of overarching issue, if that works and I think the first thing that would be on a lot of people’s mind would be the US-China relationship, where in some ways, oddly, even though US political climate has become very polarized, we’ve seen a continuation. The Obama administration began a rebalance toward     Asia. Today, you hear from many Democrats, as well as many Republicans a concern about what’s going on in China and the future of the relationship. How do you see a Biden administration getting sort of setting itself up to deal with China?

Tony Blinken: Well, first of all, I think you’re right. There is a growing consensus across parties that China        poses a series of new challenges and that the status quo was really not sustainable particularly  when  it comes to China’s commercial and economic practices, the lack of reciprocity in the relationships  or  something  that   couldn’t be sustained and needed to be and continue to need to be dealt with.

Here’s the problem and again, take a step back, my concern now is that in terms of China’s strategic interests and in terms of our own, China, as a result of the last three and a half years is in a stronger position and we’re in a weaker position and that’s what a Biden administration would have to start to rebuild from. What do I      mean by that?

If you think about what China would hope to achieve strategically around the world, unfortunately, in my              judgment, the Trump administration has helped them advance their interests. Weaker US  alliances,   China  sees alliances as a core source of strength for the United States, something they don’t share and enjoy.           Unfortunately,  the way President Trump has pursued his policies that’s weakened, not strengthened our core    alliances, particularly in Asia.

Institutions, China’s trying to assert its own leadership in international institutions at the expense of our own. Well, our own withdrawal from virtually every institution you can think of has left an opening for China to fill.

When it comes to values, our abdication of standing up for our own values and in Asia and with regard to        China’s actions, has, I think, given the government in Beijing,  a sense of greater impunity when it  comes  to  cracking down on democracy in Hong Kong or for that matter, dealing and abusing the human rights of Uyghurs in China.

Finally, our own democracy, when it is weak, when it looks like it’s in disarray, when it seems not to be            delivering from for its people when people are questioning its legitimacy, that is arguably good for China          because our model looks less attractive than it otherwise would. Well, I think President Trump, unfortunately,  has led an assault on our own democracy,  its institutions,  its values,  its people that is  served to further         delegitimize it, not just in the eyes of Americans but around the world. In  that  sense,  I’ m  afraid  we’ re  at  a strategic  disadvantage. China is at a strategic advantage at this particular moment.

Having said that, how would we approach things? A few things that are worth underscoring, first,  it’s  vital        because we are in a competition with China and there’s nothing wrong with competition if it’s fair. In fact, it      hopefully brings out in some ways the best. We need, in the first instance, to invest in our own                       competitiveness. That means making some very fundamental reorientation of resources and priorities when it comes to investing in American infrastructure, American education,    the health care system, our workers and their competitiveness.

Second, one of the things I think that’s been a deficiency in the Trump administration’s approach to contending with China is it’s done so not with our allies and partners but without them, indeed while alienating them. We     need to rally our allies and partners instead of alienating them to deal with some of the challenges that China poses.

For example, on trade, as you know, Walter, we’re about 25% of world GDP alone. When we’re working with        allies and partners, depending on who we bring into the mix, it’s 50 or 60% of GDP. That’s a lot more weight and a lot harder for China to ignore.

Third, we need to be standing up for our values and put them back at the center of our foreign policy, not walk away from them. We obviously need to be in a place to effectively deter aggression, if China pursues it.

Finally, I think you’d see a Biden demonstration having reestablished a relative strength in the relationship,      then be able to engage China and work with China, in areas where our interests clearly overlap,  whether   it is  again, contending with climate change, dealing with global health and pandemics, dealing with the spread of        dangerous weapons. We’re much better off though, finding ways to cooperate when we’re acting from a      position of strength than from a position of weakness.

FYI 




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发表评论 评论 (8 个评论)

  • 夜夜笙歌 2020-11-23 11:41
    静观其变。
  • Hongmei Yu 2020-11-23 20:12
    彭佩奥要竞选2024年总统
  • 小马 2020-11-24 05:22
    我就一个疑问。从访谈来看,美国佬一直觉得,在中美关系中,美国是weaker position, 他强调了好多次。。。然而,从我们中方报道来看,还有中国人的观感来说,我们也一直觉得在这段关系中,中国处于弱势。。。强壮的那个汉子哪里去了?
  • I3超润之 2020-11-24 08:20
    小马: 我就一个疑问。从访谈来看,美国佬一直觉得,在中美关系中,美国是weaker position, 他强调了好多次。。。然而,从我们中方报道来看,还有中国人的观感来说,我
    卖萌不成功!
    美国佬说的weaker hands,是说它自己当前的政策。

    就好比看棋的比比划划说下棋的星条旗队这步走的真臭,我走就不拱卒我该飞象呀。骨子里都是藐视对面五星红旗队。

    你因为是孔夫子的第99代徒孙,坚信家长教诲的观棋不语。甚至因为楚河汉界上挂一道模模糊糊但隔音很好的帘子,一直纳闷对方说飞象,这大象是柱子状的还是棍子状的还是鞭子状的呢。不管它了,问问其他摸过象的人就知道了
  • I3超润之 2020-11-24 08:35
    Hongmei Yu: 彭佩奥要竞选2024年总统
    他在今年9月份就表示了呀。我还和一帮川粉掐过说他会不会以民主党身份出来选举。当时的假设是川普赢,2024 彭斯会乘东风。他出来选或许会让中国有所焦虑。但我觉得他不一定能在党内出线。除非中国助他一臂之力。

    他说的 ‘确保下一个世纪,不是中共统治的世纪',(不知真假)这样偏激的口号表明是他自己panic,他们少数共和党人的Sinophobic发作,不是美国选民panic 或trending to Xenophobic 了。根本上讲,他这样的有偏激思维倾向的公务员出身的人当总统,才是真的对我们在美华人最坏的结果
  • I3超润之 2020-11-24 08:49
    夜夜笙歌:静观其变。
    估计还是奥巴马时代的三板斧。1)采取预防性外交+支持军事威慑;2)主张对华坚持贸易规则和对等互惠;3)通过alliance,构建“民主国家联盟”来对付中国“一带一路”。

    中国就是在2009-2016年奥巴马当总统时成长起来的。很显然中国轻车熟路会更让拜登难以应对。面对老调子,中国人或许会觉得没啥意思,智商被侮辱了。

    奥巴马时代中美关系定下的frame 是:比高不比低,“go high rather than go low”,最后被他老婆借去,在2016年挺希拉里竞选集会上针对川普的人品说, as they go low, we go high, 获得满堂彩。问题是 an inch taller than low is a high, 还是 ( morality )as high as you could?
  • 夜夜笙歌 2020-11-24 11:29
    I3超润之: 估计还是奥巴马时代的三板斧。1)采取预防性外交+支持军事威慑;2)主张对华坚持贸易规则和对等互惠;3)通过alliance,构建“民主国家联盟”来对付中国“一带一
  • 小马 2020-11-25 05:03
    I3超润之: 卖萌不成功!
    美国佬说的weaker hands,是说它自己当前的政策。

    就好比看棋的比比划划说下棋的星条旗队这步走的真臭,我走就不拱卒我该飞象呀。骨子里都是藐视
    明白了。。。就是假惺惺的觉得自己太好说话了。。。
涂鸦板